Comparing Forecasts of the Global Impacts of Climate Change

This paper utilizes the predictions of several General Circulation Models and the Global Impact Model to create forecasts of the global impacts from climate change. The forecasts of impacts in 2100 vary considerably depending on climate scenarios and climate sensitivity. The models do concur that tropical nations will be hurt, temperate nations will be barely affected, and polar nations will benefit. Because these effects are offsetting, the net impact for the globe is relatively small. Compensation is clearly called for but only a modest abatement program appears warranted at this time. The large uncertainty surrounding these forecasts further suggests that continued monitoring of both the climate and impacts is worthwhile.